Four key trends for the next ten years

Energy

In 2010 energy is still relatively cheap, because it is mainly derived from energy intensive, easy to produce, fossil fuels.

This will change dramatically over the next ten years:

  • The world's remaining oil and gas is in non democratic or unstable countries – Middle East, Russia, Nigeria, Venezuela, or in very hard to get places – deep sea Gulf of Mexico, Arctic, Canadian tar sands.
  • Governments are increasingly taxing the burning of fossil fuels in an attempt to slow climate change.
  • Renewable and nuclear sources of energy are currently very expensive.

Geopolitics

China, with a population of 1.3 billion, will dominate the 21st Century in the way that the US dominated the 20th and the UK the 19th. India, with a population of 1.2 billion is not far behind.

Population

The world's population will grow from around 7 billion today to a little under 8 billion in 2020, probably peaking at around 9 billion in 2040 – 2050.

Although the world's population is still growing, the rate of growth is declining as countries become more affluent.

Technology

Seven technologies to watch:

Renewable energy

Renewable energy will really take off when it's cheaper than coal. Solar is probably the technology with the most potential – either through cheaper photovoltaic cells or transmitting energy from solar power stations in the Sahara to Europe via DC lines.

Electric cars and smart grids

The Nissan Leaf launches next year, and every major vehicle manufacture is looking at electric cars. Smart grids will smooth peaks in demand for electricity and make electric cars viable.

Carbon capture

Cheap carbon capture will make coal a respectable energy source once again.

Geo engineering

Stop worrying about C02 and cool the world directly by spraying sulphur aerosols into the stratosphere.

Mobile computing

More than half the world's population now have a mobile phone, and mobile devices will increasingly become a key link to the cloud/internet.

Graphene electronics

Graphene could replace silicon and make electronics smaller, faster and cheaper.

Personal genomics

As the cost of sequencing a genome falls exponentially, there will come a time when each of us will know our personal genome, and manage our health care accordingly.